Application talk
Abstract
Drugs are often seen as ancillary to the purpose of fighting diseases. I propose an alternative view in which they occupy a spearheading role instead. In this view, drugs are technologies with an inherent therapeutic potential. Once created, they can spread from disease to disease independently of the drug creator’s original intentions. Thus, drugs hold an intrinsic value based not only on their proven therapeutic effect but also on their therapeutic potential, both suspected and unsuspected. Through the computational analysis of extensive literature and clinical trial records, it can be observed that successful drugs follow a life cycle in which they are studied at an increasing rate, and for the treatment of an increasing number of diseases, leading to clinical advancement. Such initial growth, following a power law on average, has a degree of momentum, but eventually decelerates, leading to stagnation and decay. It can be said that the development of successful drugs presents certain “inertia” or “momentum.” As in the driving of a heavy vehicle, it takes time both to accelerate and decelerate. A network model can describe the propagation of drugs from disease to disease in which diseases communicate with each other by receiving and sending drugs. Within this model, some diseases appear more prone to influence other diseases than be influenced, and vice versa. Some diseases might be quick at testing new drugs and could be described as “innovators” or “early adopters,” while other diseases might be slow or “late adopters.” From the point of view of a drug developer, an “early adopter” disease may be approached first because it represents a lower hurdle due to reduced cost and length of clinical trials or a less challenging competitive landscape. Diseases can also be organized into a drug-centric disease taxonomy based on the drugs that each adopts. The structure of such taxonomies depends on the stage of development, differentiation and exclusivity of existing therapies. In sum, it can be shown that drugs can become contagious technologies playing a driving role in the fight against disease. By better understanding such dynamics, pharmaceutical developers may be able to manage drug projects more effectively because the variability and asymmetry of drug adoption delays hint that there could be opportunities for drug developers to monitor more effectively drugs in diseases connected to their diseases of focus or to expand the testing of their drugs into diseases ahead of competitors.
Authors
Raul Rodriguez-Esteban, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd., Switzerland